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Post by Phoenix FC on Mar 10, 2022 13:42:13 GMT -5
And yet you completely disregard what I said prior to my question. The answer is there. You're confusing yourself by over complicating it. It stops being strategy and becomes cheating when you know you have someone's number and pick a team you know for a fact you can get 3+ wins against what they have in their arsenal, it doesn't matter if you know who they're putting in or not. If we were getting under 10 correct predictions from everyone consistently on every single card in the predictor, you'd have an argument for it being strategy... But when you already pretty much know beforehand that you can beat at least 3 of a team's 5 in a weight class, regardless of who it is, and hand-pick that team to be your opponent, that IS an unfair advantage, and, effectively, cheating. You are talking about hypotheticals, not reality. What GP team would you argue "know for a fact" they can get 3+ wins over their opponent? I'm not arguing hypotheticals at all; you're just saying that I am cuz you're doing this "devil's advocate" BS that Snakes was trying to do as well, even when I do offer facts. Again, the proof, and the answer to your question, lays in our predictor scores. Take a look down the list of predictors and you'll see that, more often than not, over 90% of the folks, that do predict, get more than 50% of the their predictions correct. Therefore, when you get to the GP, the pool of fighters gets smaller, making it even easier to ascertain winners and losers. So I would argue that any veteran GM, which is nearly all of us, should be able to know, with over 50% accuracy, who can beat who on any given card, barring a power upgrade or a flash finish, but especially in the GP with the smaller fighter pool in the GP; unless of course you predict how I did with my own team this time around, figuring that a number of my fighters are better than they actually are. 🤷 And TBH, with your "devil's advocate" approach/argument here, it more sounds to me like you're saying that you don't think any GMs in the league are that savvy or smart enough to do such a thing, when the reality is that nearly all of us are by now, after this many years of doing this. |
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The Sandman
The Mad King
Black Belt (7th Degree)
Posts: 4,682
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Post by The Sandman on Mar 10, 2022 16:45:00 GMT -5
You are talking about hypotheticals, not reality. What GP team would you argue "know for a fact" they can get 3+ wins over their opponent? I'm not arguing hypotheticals at all; you're just saying that I am cuz you're doing this "devil's advocate" BS that Snakes was trying to do as well, even when I do offer facts. Again, the proof, and the answer to your question, lays in our predictor scores. Take a look down the list of predictors and you'll see that, more often than not, over 90% of the folks, that do predict, get more than 50% of the their predictions correct. Therefore, when you get to the GP, the pool of fighters gets smaller, making it even easier to ascertain winners and losers. So I would argue that any veteran GM, which is nearly all of us, should be able to know, with over 50% accuracy, who can beat who on any given card, barring a power upgrade or a flash finish, but especially in the GP with the smaller fighter pool in the GP; unless of course you predict how I did with my own team this time around, figuring that a number of my fighters are better than they actually are. 🤷 And TBH, with your "devil's advocate" approach/argument here, it more sounds to me like you're saying that you don't think any GMs in the league are that savvy or smart enough to do such a thing, when the reality is that nearly all of us are by now, after this many years of doing this. If this were true, everyone would have predicted the GP winner this season. Most did not. And of those who did, one person predicted their own team for moral support, and the other is a brand new member predicting for the first time. This definitely proves that being a seasoned GM has nothing to do with it, and definitely proves that GP is not predictable. The numbers you are using for an average prediction are flawed because they include the worst fighters (who always lose) the best fighters (Champions - who always win), and tournament mismatches that are all easy to predict. GP is not always easy to predict, or else 5/5 predictors would have known who would win the GP this season. |
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Post by Phoenix FC on Mar 10, 2022 17:09:56 GMT -5
I'm not arguing hypotheticals at all; you're just saying that I am cuz you're doing this "devil's advocate" BS that Snakes was trying to do as well, even when I do offer facts. Again, the proof, and the answer to your question, lays in our predictor scores. Take a look down the list of predictors and you'll see that, more often than not, over 90% of the folks, that do predict, get more than 50% of the their predictions correct. Therefore, when you get to the GP, the pool of fighters gets smaller, making it even easier to ascertain winners and losers. So I would argue that any veteran GM, which is nearly all of us, should be able to know, with over 50% accuracy, who can beat who on any given card, barring a power upgrade or a flash finish, but especially in the GP with the smaller fighter pool in the GP; unless of course you predict how I did with my own team this time around, figuring that a number of my fighters are better than they actually are. 🤷 And TBH, with your "devil's advocate" approach/argument here, it more sounds to me like you're saying that you don't think any GMs in the league are that savvy or smart enough to do such a thing, when the reality is that nearly all of us are by now, after this many years of doing this. If this were true, everyone would have predicted the GP winner this season. Most did not. And of those who did, one person predicted their own team for moral support, and the other is a brand new member predicting for the first time. This definitely proves that being a seasoned GM has nothing to do with it, and definitely proves that GP is not predictable. The numbers you are using for an average prediction are flawed because they include the worst fighters (who always lose) the best fighters (Champions - who always win), and tournament mismatches that are all easy to predict. GP is not always easy to predict, or else 5/5 predictors would have known who would win the GP this season. No, again... As you always do, you twist things around to try and make your point. There's nothing flawed about it just because you say it is, Justin... Never has been; never will be. The top fighters do tend to cross paths along the way during the season... And if you're saying they don't, then you're full of shit. 🤷 As for the predictor, here's this GP's: 1st Round Rocketmen - 14/24 Rattlesnakes - 20/24 Phoenix - 13/24 Ducks - 21/24 Byron - 21/24 Hale Storm - 21/24 Other than myself & Mike, everyone 83%+ 2nd Round & Final Snakes - 11/18 Cyclones - 15/18 Rockets - 8/18 Hale Storm - 15/18 Ducks - 9/18 Everyone but Mike 50%+, including the new guy. So don't sit there and tell me that my numbers are flawed, or try to snow anyone else into believing that the GP is so much more unpredictable than the season is, cuz it's not. I know you want it to be, but it's not. You get virtually the same exact ratios in number percentage correct and number of people getting 50%+ correct. And, if you take a team's own personal bias out of it and folks would predict for straight winners instead of taking a flyer on a guy or simply picking their own fighter to win, those percentages would be higher. 🤷 |
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Post by Lord Byron's Conquistadors on Mar 10, 2022 18:16:31 GMT -5
Other than myself & Mike, everyone 83%+ lmfao phx: "everyone knows who will win" also phx: gets worst prediction score on predictor out of everyone on the site lololol |
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Post by Phoenix FC on Mar 10, 2022 18:45:35 GMT -5
Other than myself & Mike, everyone 83%+ lmfao phx: "everyone knows who will win" also phx: gets worst prediction score on predictor out of everyone on the site lololol Laugh all you want, but every single card, most everyone predicts at 50% or better; and a large number get 80% or better. The reason my score was so low was because I believed I could beat you in the 1st round, and it didn't happen... Which, again, brings in the personal team bias aspect of it into play. I dunno why Mike's were so low, only he can explain that, but everyone else was right on point with everything I've been saying and every other card; GP or non-GP. 🤷 |
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The Sandman
The Mad King
Black Belt (7th Degree)
Posts: 4,682
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Post by The Sandman on Mar 10, 2022 19:15:49 GMT -5
Honestly, at this point since only about 2 people send in opponent lists a year, and Phoenix FC is making my life hell cares so passionately about this, I'm tempted to just drop the poll and revert back to the seed-based matchups moving forward. I'll sleep on it and see where we are at later. I'm still leaning towards this. Does anyone who voted Option 1 care as strongly about this issue as PHX does? (Feel free to message me about this privately if you don't want to partake in public drama but still want your voice heard). |
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Post by Phoenix FC on Mar 10, 2022 20:54:41 GMT -5
Honestly, at this point since only about 2 people send in opponent lists a year, and Phoenix FC is making my life hell cares so passionately about this, I'm tempted to just drop the poll and revert back to the seed-based matchups moving forward. I'll sleep on it and see where we are at later. I'm still leaning towards this. Does anyone who voted Option 1 care as strongly about this issue as PHX does? (Feel free to message me about this privately if you don't want to partake in public drama but still want your voice heard). There's no drama. You kept prodding me for more information, that I provided before you outright tried to refute it, even though I'm actually exactly right about the predictor percentages whether it's seasonal or GP. There's never more than 1, or rarely 2, folks under 50% correct on any cards, and most are over 50% correct on every single card. There's no disputing that, because it's a fact. That's why I'm so adamant about it being reverted back to the seeding system. That's it. |
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The Sandman
The Mad King
Black Belt (7th Degree)
Posts: 4,682
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Post by The Sandman on Mar 10, 2022 22:30:56 GMT -5
There's no drama. You kept prodding me for more information, that I provided before you outright tried to refute it, even though I'm actually exactly right about the predictor percentages whether it's seasonal or GP. There's never more than 1, or rarely 2, folks under 50% correct on any cards, and most are over 50% correct on every single card. There's no disputing that, because it's a fact. That's why I'm so adamant about it being reverted back to the seeding system. That's it. I understand the point you think you are making, but your predictor logic is severely flawed. You fail to see it, either due to lack of understanding, or lack of interest in considering anything that contradicts what you believe, so there's nothing further to discuss. Now I am asking other people for their opinion. Yours has been heard for 4 pages, so it might be time to let other people have a chance to speak now. |
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Post by Phoenix FC on Mar 11, 2022 14:09:42 GMT -5
There's no drama. You kept prodding me for more information, that I provided before you outright tried to refute it, even though I'm actually exactly right about the predictor percentages whether it's seasonal or GP. There's never more than 1, or rarely 2, folks under 50% correct on any cards, and most are over 50% correct on every single card. There's no disputing that, because it's a fact. That's why I'm so adamant about it being reverted back to the seeding system. That's it. I understand the point you think you are making, but your predictor logic is severely flawed. You fail to see it, either due to lack of understanding, or lack of interest in considering anything that contradicts what you believe, so there's nothing further to discuss. Now I am asking other people for their opinion. Yours has been heard for 4 pages, so it might be time to let other people have a chance to speak now. No, once gain, you're projecting exactly what you're doing on to me, with zero regard to the validity of my ascernation because you don't want to believe it. Nor have you even explained at all how you figure the predictor percentages is somehow flawed, other than "because I said so". 🤷 Those are b&w facts & figures from the site. So they can't be flawed. Now, I'll let explain it one last time... The biggest reason it isn't flawed, is because it literally shows how well people on the site know the program and know the fighters on the site. On every single card, whether it's seasonal or GP, a vast majority of people that predict are getting well more than half of them correct. There's literally usually only ever 1 person out of the lot that gets below that; it's rare that there's ever 2. So you ask: So what Kruze? What does that have to do with being able to hand-pick your opponent in the GP? Well, if you don't see it immediately, which absolutely baffles me that no one does... I would say everything. Cuz if a majority of folks that are predicting, many of which are top 8 or potential top 8 teams, are consistently able to correctly predict the 13-15 of the winners on an 18-20 fight card, one can easily deduce that, that information can be correlated directly to this unfair hand-picking of your GP opponent thing that we are discussing here. If folks were consistently hovering at 50%-60% or less accuracy rate on the predictors, this wouldn't be much of an issue, but when a majority of people on the site can predict who's going to win with roughly a 70%-80%+ accuracy rate like that, being able to hand-pick your opponent in the GP becomes just a mechanism to be able to navigate your team's easiest path through the GP, which kind of destroys the essence of GP, and, quite frankly, the entire site supposedly being "the best of the best" if any team can manipulate their way to the GP finals or a GP win... Especially with so few people sending in "priority lists" anyways, which I would assert that a number of people didn't know you could even do, because I didn't... 🤷 You guys implemented this after I left in Era 1. And, like I said, I get the whole rivalries aspect of it, but when there's too much of an opportunity for any team to manipulate the system like that, the cons outweigh the pros in that instance. I will also point out again that I never once called out or singled out, anyone out specifically for "cheating". All I was ever saying was that this "priority list" system can be used as a cheat because 90% of our members clearly have enough of a grasp of the program, and the fighters there-in, to be able to do that, intended or not. That's what makes it an unfair advantage and, effectively, a cheat if it were used in that manner, and it easily could be. |
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